Mayo Report

[Trev]

As y'all should know by now, I love wild speculation, so understanding that, which do you think is more likely...
1. There are a little about 150,000 mainstream comic fans
or
2. Neither Marvel nor DC has figured out how to have the must read book that everyone needs to be reading.

I say this because the top sellers (discounting the number one issues which we have reason to doubt all end up in reader's hands) are a little over 100K.

I have to think it is number 2. Batman and AvX is probably the closest thing with sales around 150K but it is a pretty big drop off to the next title (Justice League, give or take).

Other than another giant event book, what could Marvel or DC do to boost a single title. Batman is a popular character which certainly helps. The creative team is top notch but nothing in their past would suggest that sort of sales bump. I have no idea personally, I dropped off of both AvX and Batman. Batman Court of Owls went too long and ways I didn't like (same with AvX) and both had plenty of cross-overs. All things I generally don't like so not sure if those helped, hurt or had no impact.

Any ideas on suggestions? We have seen a few trends come and go. Maybe once MarvelNOW falls out we will see what else works?

My personal, non-scientific estimate is that the total number of people who may buy any number of comics on a semi-regular basis through diamond supported shops in the US is closer to 2x the number you have.

Numbers that have gone beyond 150k for any single issue over the last several years have either reached public consciousness through the media (Cap 25, ASM 583), relied on cover gimmicks (TWD 100).

I wonder how much returnability plays a role if any. The New 52 seemed to benefit greatly from loosening the handcuffs on the direct market and allowing them to reach the largest possible audience they could.

[boshuda]

I've arrived at an estimate of one to three million unique comic readers. This is about as anti-scientific an estimate as you can get, but when you consider this is at most less than 1% of the US population it's still a reasonable guess. I base it largely on the number of titles, their sales numbers, and the notion that the average number of comics people get per month is approximately ten to twelve. But I've never actually crunched the numbers on these estimates, I just kind of feel this is a good number.

[JohnMayo]

I base it largely on the number of titles, their sales numbers, and the notion that the average number of comics people get per month is approximately ten to twelve.

That works out to only 2 or 3 comics a week. That doesn't seem high enough to get people back to the comic book shops every week.

It would be nice to have some sort of data about average number of comics per person per week but unless Comics Pro is collecting that data, I doubt anybody is.

[boshuda]

I base it largely on the number of titles, their sales numbers, and the notion that the average number of comics people get per month is approximately ten to twelve.

That works out to only 2 or 3 comics a week. That doesn't seem high enough to get people back to the comic book shops every week.

It would be nice to have some sort of data about average number of comics per person per week but unless Comics Pro is collecting that data, I doubt anybody is.

Assuming people collect an average of ten to twelve comics a month then my estimate is 3 - 6 times too high, putting it closer to the other guy's estimates. That's kind of depressing when you think of how small a percentage of people are enjoying comics. Obviously if the average number of titles is lower then more people would be collecting.

Add in the non-comic collectors who collect digitally (I bet there are almost none of those considering the price point) and the people who only read in trades and there are just too many variables without data to get a reliable number.

[fudd71]

Listening to the current Mayo report I found myself once again thinking about something that seems to be a fact but I struggle to understand. That is the marketing trick of the #1 issue and the standard drop after that first issue. John mentioned that the drop from issue #1 to #2 is running at about 20% (listening to these shows monthly it seems like that percentage is larger and growing on bigger name titles), I wonder why?

Personally I don’t’ understand why this drop is so large and seemingly a forgone conclusion. Even on #1 issues that seem to have positive word-of-mouth and be generally liked there is a rather large drop on the second issue. Why is that?

Are there a large number of comic readers that will buy anything with the #1 on it? If so do they buy those #1 issues knowing they won’t buy the #2? If so why bother buying the #1 at all?

Do large number of people buy #1 issues to try the book out regardless of if they think they will like it? Again as a reader, if your not that interested, why even try the #1? If this is the case wouldn’t it make sense that books that have more positive reviews and word-of-mouth not experience as large a drop? Seemingly however that second issue drop is fairly large irrespective of the reviews or word-of-mouth, again this doesn’t seem logical to me.

Do a large number of people buy #1 issues knowing they will buy the rest in trade if they like it? Again as John has pointed out, this rarely actually happens, at least based on the trade numbers. Do people just say “I’ll buy the trade” never actually intending to do so because it is easier then saying “I didn’t like the book”. Again the numbers on these things seem to imply the “I’ll buy the trade” is more hyperbole then fact.

Is it a reflection of resellers simply over ordering the number 1s and most of those issues don’t’ end up being sold to actual readers? If that is the case, why don’t resellers learn and not do this? Also if resellers know they need a third less of #2 why don’t they know they need a third less of the #1. This explanation doesn’t make much sense either.

Is this a product of the preorder culture in comic books? Do people preorder the #1 with the marketing push behind that #1 but then forget to preorder the #2 & #3? Buy the time the reader has actually received, read and evaluated the #1 have they missed the chance to get the #2&3 so they don’t bother ordering the #4&5?

I obviously don’t understand this phenomenon around #1 issues, I would love to hear others opinions. Personally I only buy a #1 if I think there is good chance I will like the book and continue reading. Sure sometimes a book just doesn’t work the way I thought it would and that is the last issue I buy, but that is the exception not the rule. I must admit I also don’t understand the idea that I don’t like a book so I stop reading it, but if they put #1 on it I will try it again. If I didn’t like or didn’t buy issues #15-23 why would I buy issue #24 simply because it is called issue #1? I would love the hear what the rest of you think.

[BobBretall]

Listening to the current Mayo report I found myself once again thinking about something that seems to be a fact but I struggle to understand. That is the marketing trick of the #1 issue and the standard drop after that first issue. John mentioned that the drop from issue #1 to #2 is running at about 20% (listening to these shows monthly it seems like that percentage is larger and growing on bigger name titles), I wonder why?

I think "big name" books have artificially inflated 1st issue sales due to the addition of multiple covers & other marketing gimmicks.

Also, keep in mind that orders for #2 (and possibly #3, 4, 5, with double shipping) are all "in the bag" before the #1 hits the stands, so a lot of those drops are done on speculation that the title will drop off, as opposed to from actual reader reaction. That's why if the #2 gets a strong demand, you will get a 2nd print.

[Gilgabob]

I would imagine each of the possible explanations you give as to why #1's sell better are valid, i.e. all of the above.

[boshuda]

Listening to the current Mayo report I found myself once again thinking about something that seems to be a fact but I struggle to understand. That is the marketing trick of the #1 issue and the standard drop after that first issue. John mentioned that the drop from issue #1 to #2 is running at about 20% (listening to these shows monthly it seems like that percentage is larger and growing on bigger name titles), I wonder why?

Also, keep in mind that orders for #2 (and possibly #3, 4, 5, with double shipping) are all "in the bag" before the #1 hits the stands, so a lot of those drops are done on speculation that the title will drop off, as opposed to from actual reader reaction. That's why if the #2 gets a strong demand, you will get a 2nd print.

I think also the fact that a only few thousand sheep (oops, shop owners) order these books is important. They have collectively decided that after issue #1 the sales will drop off. So they order less and less of subsequent issues. It becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

[Perry]

... They have collectively decided that after issue #1 the sales will drop off. So they order less and less of subsequent issues. It becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Not sure it is "they have decided" as much as they have been shown. The ballooning of issue #1 orders is however, the shop owners fault. Those that repeatedly over-order what they can sell, for the purpose of obtaining variant covers or other order plateaus, will almost assuredly by out of business soon, as they are demonstrating the poor business practice of ordering more than you can possibly sell.

I am not saying that owners that order a little extra in order to obtain a "prize" or a "gift" are at fault, but merely those out there that constantly order more than they can sell JUST to obtain said "gift" or "prize"

It is akin to the Meth dilemma. Yes, you can blame the Meth dealers for selling Meth, but if people would just stop buying it ...

[boshuda]

... They have collectively decided that after issue #1 the sales will drop off. So they order less and less of subsequent issues. It becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Not sure it is "they have decided" as much as they have been shown. The ballooning of issue #1 orders is however, the shop owners fault. Those that repeatedly over-order what they can sell, for the purpose of obtaining variant covers or other order plateaus, will almost assuredly by out of business soon, as they are demonstrating the poor business practice of ordering more than you can possibly sell.

I am not saying that owners that order a little extra in order to obtain a "prize" or a "gift" are at fault, but merely those out there that constantly order more than they can sell JUST to obtain said "gift" or "prize"

It is akin to the Meth dilemma. Yes, you can blame the Meth dealers for selling Meth, but if people would just stop buying it ...

What I mean by saying 'they have decided' is that it's now collective wisdom that issue #1 will greatly outsell issue #2. I bet very, very few (if any) shop owners even consider the possibility that a series will gain readers.

[Perry]

ah, got it.

[BobBretall]

The ballooning of issue #1 orders is however, the shop owners fault. Those that repeatedly over-order what they can sell, for the purpose of obtaining variant covers or other order plateaus, will almost assuredly by out of business soon, as they are demonstrating the poor business practice of ordering more than you can possibly sell.

While true for some, I think that if a shop owner gets some dude to pre-order a 1:100 comic that they are willing to pay big $$ for and the shop owner does the math figuring that they would normally sell 60, but if they order an extra 40 at a cost of X and can sell the variant for Y, as long as Y>X then they are getting those extra copies essentially for free and even if they sell them in a $ bin or on-line for cheap.

I'm just saying that there are circumstances where it may make financial sense to inflate your order IF you have someone who will buy the incentive covers, even if you just toss the extra copies in the shredder.

[Perry]

The ballooning of issue #1 orders is however, the shop owners fault. Those that repeatedly over-order what they can sell, for the purpose of obtaining variant covers or other order plateaus, will almost assuredly by out of business soon, as they are demonstrating the poor business practice of ordering more than you can possibly sell.

While true for some, I think that if a shop owner gets some dude to pre-order a 1:100 comic that they are willing to pay big $$ for and the shop owner does the math figuring that they would normally sell 60, but if they order an extra 40 at a cost of X and can sell the variant for Y, as long as Y>X then they are getting those extra copies essentially for free and even if they sell them in a $ bin or on-line for cheap.

I'm just saying that there are circumstances where it may make financial sense to inflate your order IF you have someone who will buy the incentive covers, even if you just toss the extra copies in the shredder.

Yeah, well sure, but I can bet those deals between one buyer and a shop owner are rare. I mean in your example, you're asking a shop owner to almost double his order for one patron. Obviously if it is beneficial for the owner to make money while also satisfying a customer, he will (should) oblige, but I just can't see too many people going into your average comic shop and saying "I will pay you $120 for 'this' cover. Could you order it please?"

But again ...

I am not saying that owners that order a little extra in order to obtain a "prize" or a "gift" are at fault, but merely those out there that constantly order more than they can sell JUST to obtain said "gift" or "prize"

Believe me, there are some ex-comic shop owners that could not separate buffer inventory from self-indulgent over purchasing and I know that practice is still going on.

Just because you are lucky enough to have your comic guy sell you variants at cover price ...

[BobBretall]

Yeah, well sure, but I can bet those deals between one buyer and a shop owner are rare. I mean in your example, you're asking a shop owner to almost double his order for one patron. Obviously if it is beneficial for the owner to make money while also satisfying a customer, he will (should) oblige, but I just can't see too many people going into your average comic shop and saying "I will pay you $120 for 'this' cover. Could you order it please?"

I'm not too sure about this. I know that most of the high rarity variants at my shop are typically spoken for in advance. There is a sub-culture of incentive cover collectors out there who aggressively go after this material. If it was all just sitting unsold on the shelves, they wouldn't keep doing it. That said, Marvel is more successful at it than DC. their variant sell fairly easily to rabid collectors in my neck of the woods, which the DC variants often go unsold, AND I've heard reports that DC is ramping back on their variants program. There's likely a correlation there.

DCBS does the same thing with listing the variants on the spreadsheet with insane prices. If people order them, they could easily bump their orders by a bit to make a threshold if it makes financial sense, or else they just cancel the order & say they didn't get the variant (they have done this to me, which is why I don;t get variants from DCBS any more).

[Perry]

I'm not too sure about this. I know that most of the high rarity variants at my shop are typically spoken for in advance.

Yes, but isn't your store a pretty good sized store? I thought it was, though I maybe mistaken. A shop of fairly good size with high foot-traffic will be able to do that, have orders that are large, when they know the amount of customers will off-set most of the cost.

Not all stores, and in fact I would wager most of them, can not afford to order more titles just to get a variant. Yet I have seen them do so (I know of two stores near me that do this very thing) and I think it is a mistake. All it does is set precedence for publishers to offer more gimmicks to increase their sales, while lessening the profitability of the retailer. The retailer that does not get the traffic or eyes in which to counter this over-buying habit.

DCBS does the same thing with listing the variants on the spreadsheet with insane prices.

Well sure, I never said that stores that can make money on them shouldn't order them, in fact, I have been saying the opposite. It is the practice of the store owners that CAN"T risk ordering more, in order to obtain a "special" cover, that I have been talking about.

If people order them, they could easily bump their orders by a bit to make a threshold if it makes financial sense, or else they just cancel the order & say they didn't get the variant (they have done this to me, which is why I don;t get variants from DCBS any more).

Exactly. They know when it has become 'potentially' unprofitable to order in excess and therefor they do not do so, and that, along with many other things they are doing so well, will help them remain viable.

That is my point. The shops that order a huge amount beyond their regular orders just for the shiny object in the cage, will eventually find they are trapped.